I do statistics every quarter to try to get a handle on how to counsel our Buyers and Sellers. The numbers after the first 6 months seemed very dismal. All our numbers were down. Prices were down and numbers sold were also down. At the time however, I predicted that it was not an accurate picture of what our housing market was doing. It was based on what had happened in the past and did not accurately reflect what was currently happening. We were experiencing an active spring market with many homes being sold with multiple offers for over the asking prices. In the lower range I was comfortable pushing prices higher than the number were indicating, while in the upper register homes were languishing much longer than we would like.

I have just completed calculating the nine month numbers and indeed it shows rising prices in MOST of our markets as well as increases in the actual number of homes sold. Bethel is UP 7.1% with 11.9% more homes sold over the first 3 quarters of 2017. Brookfield values rose 4.6% with 5.8% more closings. New Milford up 6.7% with 11.8% more home sold year over year for the same period. Danbury was up 4.8%, New Fairfield 1.3%, Newtown 3.8%, Southbury 10.6%, Redding 11.9% with Ridgefield showing an even showing. Prices were up in every town with the exception of Woodbury, Roxbury and Sherman.

The actual numbers sold was not as encouraging. Bethel, Brookfield, New Milford saw substantial increases year over year while all of the other towns declined in the number of sales. Some smaller towns like Roxbury and Sherman saw substantial decreases in the number of homes sold but these towns sell so few homes annually that a change of 5-6 homes will tilt the numbers. Every other town saw declines in closings year over year.

Just returning from a Coldwell Banker retreat in Boca Raton for the company’s top producers across most of the nation, I found that we are virtually the only state that is still below the high values of 2006!! I knew that we were absolutely the last state to recover BUT I did not anticipate hearing that many of these markets was already 10%+ OVER their 2006 values. So, although we are seeing increasing prices, it is dwarfed by the national recovery. In summary, I find these results promising and positive but also very disappointing when measured against other regions.

I was OK in Math throughout High School but I never LOVED it until I became a Realtor.  Statistics tell stories. They help you put complex topics into simple terms that anyone can understand. Statistics answer questions with undeniable facts. The PROBLEM with statistics is that you need the wisdom behind the number to be able to correctly interpret what they are telling you. The statistic might say prices are falling 4%. Are they really falling or is the high end buyer not in the market, causing the median sales price to fall?? This is where knowledge meets wisdom and having a Realtor with “feet on the ground” selling 40+ homes locally each year makes a difference interpreting the numbers.Continue Reading