Where You Want To Be In CT

It is time to get off the couch and reach for EXCELLENCE.  At McCaffrey Professionals, our internal team motto is, IN PURSUT OF EXCELLENCE.  Excellence is a mindset of learning and improving with each day, opportunity, and obstacle.  It is constantly shifting, reevaluating, adjusting, and growing.  Excellence is a HABIT not a destination.  It is not perfection, but the pursuit of always better.  It is not a competition except with ourselves.  Working in Excellence is an action verb, not a final destination.

Whether it is from Covid Fatigue, emotional fatigue, or a result of your family history, we all fall into the complacency trap at some point.  You are content to be in your comfort zone.  It is a safe place without much stress.  It should be where we go to rest and recharge but can turn into a place where we become STUCK.  The forward momentum has stopped, and it is very hard to get the enthusiasm to make the change.  Becoming stuck is a result of your mindset.  Taking the risk and reaching for more takes courage and hard work. 

 How we got into this trap is a result of a number of factors.  It could be circumstances such as a job loss or a change in your finances or the changes in the economy. It could be about your limiting beliefs that were ingrained through family, religion, or personality.  It could be through family issues or health.  Your internal message is I can’t, I’m not smart enough, I don’t have the resources or the skills.  It is not a self-serving place to be when you are caught in complacency.  You tend to shut down, feel shame and place blame outside of yourself.Continue Reading

It has been an extremely interesting week in real estate.  After listening to an extremely detailed and technical analysis from Barry Habib, the leading economist when it come to real estate predictions, his statistics confirmed what I have been seeing and feeling. Combine that with what has happened just in the past few days, and it has set the stage for a perfect storm coming by the third quarter of 2023.  As you know, inflation is caused by too many dollars chasing too few goods.  With China and Taiwan opening ports, goods are finally making it onto the shelves.  That is part of the supply.  The FED is doing an excellent job by taking money out of the system by raising the rates on short term loans and credit cards.  By May 10^th you will see a large drop in inflation. That is when the year over year increase is calculated.  We, in real estate, knew this would happen.  We also knew that our housing shortage is critically low, less than 20% of what we need on an annual level.  We need 4 million listings a year and currently have under 800,000 homes available nationally. Builders are starting to build but we have experienced little to no building since 2008.  The largest group in history are turning 33 (median average age of new household formation).  They have gone to sleep over the past 4 months as interest rates have risen.  We all thought that these rates would fall as they are artificially high right now being driven by fear of increasing inflation.  We all felt that it would take at least this year for them to come down.

Something interesting happened this week.  Two banks failed.  These are isolated instances not due to poor lending standards or foreclosures but by poor investments by the banks and financial ignorance of the tech industries. .  I knew immediately that all the large banks would slash interest rates on mortgages as a show of confidence.  They did and overnight rates fell by about 1% to under 6%! I thought that the FED knowing that we would be seeing a large drop in inflation in the May 10^th report immediately reported that IF they raise the rate, it might be the last increase and it may be much smaller than originally indicated.  This is again, a show of optimism and confidence based on historical statistics.Continue Reading

ADVICE FROM THE PROS-

Bimonthly,  a group of business professionals meet to discuss different topics.  At this session the discussion question was: “WHAT ADVICE WOULD YOU GIVE OTHER ENTREPRENEURS STARTING 2023?”.  It is a simple question with deep meaning considering the shifting sands of commerce and the economy.

#1 PROS NEED PROS- School is never out for the true professional.  We need others to serve as resources for information and connections.  We need the knowledge of others in other professions to broaden our understanding of business and the world in general and to listen to other’s opinions.  These connections also offer strategic alliances to create opportunities. The smart entrepreneur surround themselves with even smarter colleagues.Continue Reading

After studying and listening to many predictions and analysis of the market there are a couple of words that come to mind in anticipation of 2023.  They include stabilization, normalization, and opportunity.  During the last 2 quarters of 2022 the word would have been uncertainty.  Buyers and Seller, both, had to come to terms with the new reality of the market after 4 record breaking years.  We now see the direction more clearly. The 4 drivers of the market in 2023 will be:

                      CONSUMER CONFIDENCE,  SUPPLY,  INTEREST RATES, and DEMOGRAPHICS.

 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE- Consumers stockpiled saving during the pandemic and acquired a lot of equity in their homes as prices rose. As a result, spending is at an all time high, even with inflation.  The resources are there but is the confidence?  I am still hearing fearful discussion about homes being overpriced and the looming crash.  Real estate is totally regional.  It is predicted that the market will be flat in 2023 but that is a national number with some markets declining as much as 10% and others still rising, although at a slower pace.  The Southwest is going to be especially vulnerable since the appreciation there has been 100%+ over the past 4 years while the Northeast has had a more gradual climb of 40%.  The #1 metropolitan area (out of 100) to look at for growth for 2023, according to the National Association of Realtors, is the Greater Hartford footprint. (which includes us).  Although the national number of housing unit sold is predicted to be down 34%, our market will see about 6% more homes sold and appreciation at about 9%.  Job growth is also much different now than in 2008.  Consumers in most industries are not fearful of job losses.  In 2008, 8 million jobs were lost. In 2022 they were being created.Continue Reading

Get inspired.  We hope you will join us at our next meeting of Business Conversations 2022 which will be held at          Chick Fil A, October 7^th from 7:45-9:30 AM

We are starting off small but 5 of us met for Breakfast, Learning, Connections and Collaboration for 90 minutes at todays meeting at Chick Fil A.  It was good seeing some of the regulars and others said they would join us next time.  Scott Farrell had some suggestions for other meeting places.  Unfortunately, the two elder care facilities are still under COVID protocol, and we would have to wear masks.

We learned from Scott Farrell, who does recruiting and admissions for Naugatuck Community College, that in CT a student can go to any of the 13 state community colleges for free regardless of family income or grades through Pell Grants.  You just need to have graduated from a CT High School.  You can go for 2 years and then transfer or take some summer classes ad graduate from your college in 3 years!!!

We learned from Karl Noivadhana that there is an online program that will help you pay off debt including your mortgage very quickly.  Check out that resource at www.moneymaxaccount.com/karin/videos.

We talked about where our “HEADSPACE” was since coming out of Covid and back to full time in office work.  Nicole and I were feeling the same delay in getting back to full energy and had taken time to ourselves to recharge and rest. Both of us, me in real estate, and Nicole in Commercial Banking had foundContinue Reading

                                                           “True silence is to the spirit what sleep is to the body                                                                 ……nourishment and refreshment.”

One thing I have missed during the past year is SOLITUDE.  What?  There is a fundamental difference between Isolation, which is what we have been forced to endure since March of 2020, and solitude.  Isolation is a forced, unnatural, situation where we can not do, go to, be with or hug.  We are not meant to be alone.  Isolation is for an extended period and results in loneliness and depression.  During isolation you have no hope and your brain starts to catastrophize even the small things like, will I run out of toilet paper?

Solitude, however,is  introspective and is planned and short term.  It is a scheduled break to breathe, slow down and come into balance with our goals, dreams, and values.  My world was turned upside down with the pandemic.  I had not expected real estate sales to go through the roof and to work 14 hours a day for weeks at a time.  The lack of solitude leads me to mood swings, my energy level dropped, and I did not think as clearly.  My ability to make decisions with conviction weakened to the point that during one incredible stretch of work and no sleep I found myself at the deli counter at 9:00PM needing a pound of sliced turke,y as there was no food in the house.  The nice deli clerk asked what kind of sliced turkey I wanted.  What? “ Yes,”  he said, “Do you want smoked, sugar cured, barbequed, honey glazed, store brand, boars head, sliced thin or thick?”….at which point I totally broke down in tears!!!  Yes, I did, for real.  At which point he just said, “Shall I just choose.?”Continue Reading

This is the time of year that I listen to every economist and study statistics to be able to get a handle on what has happened to national and local real estate and what is likely to happen in 2021 so that I can best advise my clients and also structure my focus and business.  Yesterday I spent the day on various webinars including Dr. Lawrence Yun, the economist for the National Association of Realtors, and Brian Buffini, the #1 real estate trainer in the world.  Both agreed on the resiliency of the housing market going forward.  These are trends that will continue for the next several years.

Prices have skyrocketed this year after 3 years of very minor increases.  Prices nationally are up 7-8% over last year and locally depending on price point and town between 10-15%!  This is NOT a bubble and very different from the collapse of 2007.

• There is no sub prime lending.
• Underwriting guidelines are the tightest they have ever been.
• There is an under supply of building.
• The number of short sales and foreclosures is at a normal level..12% vs 35% in 2007.
• Lack of inventory-down in some towns over 50%.

Continue Reading

Everything ALWAYS works out for the best in the end.  This is a ideal I know to be true.  Sometimes we don’t know it at the time but the struggles teach us lessons and make us who we are.  This was illustrated once again in my Real Estate life while working with Juan and Maritza.  They had been trying to sell a small home in Danbury for several years with various Realtors. They thought they had it sold about 3 years ago but the septic failed.  After saving to get a new septic I listed it last December.  It is mainly a summer cottage so it took until spring to find a buyer.  We looked at many homes for them to buy and with a limited budget most of our choices were foreclosures.  We put in several offers with no success and then their Buyer got cold feet and walked away from the purchase of their home.  About a month later we were in contract with the Buyer who ultimately closed on their home.  In the mean time we were frantically searching for their next home.  At the last minute the perfect foreclosure in Newtown became available.  With many issues including getting the water turned on for the inspection to find a blown holding tank and multiple leaks that needed to be repaired, we closed the week before this last storm.

Now the MEANT TO BE story.  It turns out that Juan and Maritza had visited the house in Newtown that they eventually bought five years ago for a tag sale and purchased a statue of the Virgin Mary. Last week it was returned to its original home.  As with everything, it worked out for the best in the end.